Prominent Indian investor Vijay Kedia pushed back against concern over India’s declining birth rate on Monday, responding to a widely-shared post by Elon Musk that noted India’s fertility rate had fallen below the replacement level for the first time in the country’s history.
The conversation was sparked by AF Post, which reported on Saturday that India’s Total Fertility Rate had dropped from 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade, falling below the replacement threshold of 2.1.
India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement for the first time in the country’s history, declining from a TFR of 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade.
Delhi’s fertility rate now sits at 1.2, lower than Finland’s.
Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/4uR8DVscvw
— AF Post (@AFpost) June 6, 2026
The post also noted that Delhi’s fertility rate now stands at 1.2, lower than Finland’s, placing it alongside some of the world’s lowest. Musk reposted the data, writing: “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”
India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement.
Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago. https://t.co/RsWf0PK6wx
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 6, 2026
The post reignited debate about demographic trends in the world’s most populous country.
Kedia, a well-known Mumbai-based investor, offered a contrarian take, arguing that India’s large population remains a structural advantage rather than a concern. “India has no shortage of people or talent. The opportunity now is to convert that talent into greater productivity, prosperity, and innovation,” he wrote on X.
India has no shortage of people or talent. The opportunity now is to convert that talent into greater productivity, prosperity, and innovation.
Population gives strength. Productivity gives prosperity.
The future belongs not to countries with the most people, but to countries… https://t.co/BrQ32JJx1U
— Vijay Kedia (@VijayKedia1) June 8, 2026
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Kedia also pushed back against the framing that population size alone determines national strength. “Population gives strength. Productivity gives prosperity. The future belongs not to countries with the most people, but to countries that unlock the full potential of their people,” he said.
The exchange touches on a debate that has intensified globally as countries like South Korea, China and several European nations grapple with falling birth rates and ageing populations.
India, despite its declining TFR, remains the world’s most populous nation and is projected to retain a relatively younger demographic profile compared to its peers for decades.
A replacement fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered the level at which a population maintains its size without migration. India’s national TFR of 1.9, while below replacement, remains considerably higher than states like Delhi and Kerala, which have seen steeper declines in line with higher urbanisation and education levels.
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