A few years ago, luxury tourists might sojourn to Scandinavia to see the Northern Lights or the Fjords — a classic winter escape characterized by long, dark days and snow-capped mountains. Now, they’re going for their summer vacations, simply to stay in a villa, preferably by a lake.
This isn’t the first case of climate change reshaping luxury travel, says Jenny Southan, founder and CEO of strategic foresight agency Globetrender, nor will it be the last. “The next Riviera may not be on the Mediterranean, but along the Baltic coast or the Norwegian Riviera, where milder summers, dramatic scenery, and cleaner air are becoming increasingly attractive,” she explains. “We’re moving from a ‘sun-seeking economy’ to a ‘comfort-seeking economy’. Increasingly, luxury is defined by places where you can sleep comfortably, walk outdoors at midday, and spend time in nature without worrying about extreme heat.”
This will come as no surprise to European travelers. In recent years, temperatures have been steadily climbing, and the last few weeks have seen near-continuous heat waves with wide-reaching consequences, from melted train tracks to increased investment in air conditioning units, and in some cases, death. At the time of writing, the UK has issued an amber heat-health alert as temperatures are due to top 86°F for 10 consecutive days. In mainland Europe — the fastest-warming continent — temperatures have blown past the 104°F threshold, and July has consistently produced weather 50 to 59°F above historical norms.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the end of Euro summer, just a recalibration, adds Southan. “Travelers are becoming thermal strategists. They’re choosing higher altitudes over lower latitudes, swapping city breaks for lakes, forests and coastlines, and looking for destinations where the climate supports wellbeing instead of undermining it,” she explains. “Rather than abandoning southern Europe, travelers will simply experience it differently — favoring spring, fall, and winter over the intense heat of August.” For many, this is already the case.
Diving expeditions are growing in popularity as thriving marine ecosystems become more scarce.Photo: Tobias Friedrich for Pelorus
Across various destinations, shoulder seasons (the warming-up and cooling-down periods either side of busy travel seasons) will become the new peak. Africa is a prime example, says Geordie Mackay-Lewis, co-founder and CEO of luxury travel company Pelorus. Tourists are becoming more tolerant of shoulder seasons, when occasional rainfall provides respite from the heat. “This would’ve been a no-go a few years back, especially for American tourists,” he says. “Now, people recognize that there is better availability and the moody storms can be a really nice contrast to the sun.”
Exactly how climate change will reshape travel remains to be seen. As we hit climate tipping points, the effects of climate change will spiral and cascade. Places that were once desirable could become nearly uninhabitable, and places that were once inaccessible could become hotspots.
