The political fortunes of the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab has had multiple ups and downs.
Once long-time allies, the two parties chose separate paths in the 2022 assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The results showed that both have pockets of strength, but neither has yet demonstrated that it can independently get an exclusive winning mandate.
The numbers from the two elections underline the problem.
BJP: From a voting percentage of 6.6 per cent in 2022 to 18.56 per cent in 2024.
In the 2022 Punjab Assembly election, the BJP contested 73 of the state’s 117 seats without its traditional alliance with the SAD. It won just two seats – Pathankot and Mukerian – and polled around 6.6 per cent of the vote.
The result was a reminder of the BJP’s limited organisational and social base in Punjab. Its support was stronger in urban and semi-urban areas, while the party struggled to translate that support into a broad-based rural presence.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election, however, produced a very different vote-share figure.
The BJP contested all 13 parliamentary seats on its own and increased its vote share sharply to 18.56 per cent. Yet, despite securing nearly one-fifth of the votes, it won zero seats.
This is perhaps the most important lesson from the BJP’s 2024 performance: A higher vote share did not automatically mean greater political influence in terms of seats.
But Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are not the same. Punjab voters are likely to give greater weight to local leadership, governance, agricultural issues, employment, law and order, welfare schemes and the performance of the state government. The BJP therefore cannot assume that its 18.56 per cent Lok Sabha vote share will automatically translate into a similar Assembly vote share.
Akali Dal: A different kind of decline
The SAD’s trajectory is almost the reverse of the BJP’s. In the 2022 Assembly election, the SAD secured 18.38 per cent of the vote and won three seats.
That vote share was significantly higher than the BJP’s 6.6 per cent. Yet the party’s seat tally remained extremely small as the Aam Aadmi Party swept the election with 92 of the 117 seats.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election was even more difficult for the SAD. The party contested all 13 seats independently and its vote share fell to 13.42 per cent. It managed to win only one seat – Bathinda.
The fall is particularly striking when compared with 2019, when the SAD had polled 27.45 per cent in Punjab. By 2024, that figure had fallen to 13.42 per cent.
Two parties, two different strengths
The BJP and the SAD face different problems – and that is precisely why their old alliance had strategic logic.
The BJP’s principal weakness in Punjab has traditionally been its limited rural and Sikh-centric social base. On the other hand, it brings a relatively stronger urban vote base and a wider appeal among sections of Hindu voters, traders and the urban middle class.
The SAD brings rural organisation, a regional identity and a historical network that the BJP has not been able to replicate on its own.
The 2024 numbers make the alliance argument stronger
The combined vote share of the two parties in 2024 was approximately 31.98 per cent – 18.56 per cent for the BJP and 13.42 per cent for the SAD.
Of course, simply adding vote shares does not mean an alliance would automatically have won a particular number of seats. Votes can overlap, candidates can perform differently and voters do not necessarily transfer their support from one alliance partner to another.
But the figures do demonstrate something important: both parties together command a much larger pool of votes than either individually converted into seats in 2024.
Why an alliance could be an ‘oxygen’ for both
For the SAD, the biggest concern is the erosion of its traditional position in Punjab politics. The party is no longer the dominant force it once was as its vote share shows.
For the BJP, the challenge is different. The party has demonstrated that it can increase its vote share substantially without the SAD. But the 2024 result also showed the limitations of that growth. Winning 18.56 per cent of the vote but zero seats exposes the gap between vote expansion and seat conversion.
The BJP needs a stronger bridge into rural Punjab and sections of the Sikh electorate. The SAD needs a stronger urban partner and access to the BJP’s expanding vote base.
An alliance could therefore offer both parties a chance to pool complementary strengths rather than compete against each other.
But an alliance alone will not solve everything.
There are serious political challenges as well.
The two parties have undergone a major political separation, and their relationship with different sections of Punjab’s electorate has changed since the farmers’ agitation and the 2022 assembly election.
The BJP also has ambitions of expanding independently in Punjab. Its rise from 6.6 per cent in the 2022 assembly election to 18.56 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha election gives the party an incentive to build its own organisation rather than remain permanently dependent on the SAD.
The SAD, meanwhile, would have to negotiate an alliance from a weaker position than it enjoyed in the past. Seat-sharing could therefore become the biggest hurdle.
Still, the electoral arithmetic presents a compelling case for dialogue.
For both, therefore, an alliance could prove to be more than a partnership.
