Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the United States is entering a particularly dangerous economic and political stretch, cautioning that the period between the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race could expose deep cracks in the country’s fiscal foundations.
“I believe we are currently on the brink,” Dalio said in a post on X. “We are entering a particularly risky period expected between the 2026 midterm election and the 2028 presidential election. At the same time, the monetary situation is becoming increasingly threatening.”
The Bridgewater Associates founder laid out the scale of the problem in stark numbers: “The US government currently spends $7 trillion while only taking in approximately $5 trillion, resulting in 40% overspending.”
He added that while Washington has substantial debt to finance, “the demand for that debt is falling,” a decline he attributed to “standard supply and demand factors, as well as fears from debt holders regarding potential sanctions.”
I believe we are currently on the brink. We are entering a particularly risky period expected between the 2026 midterm election and the 2028 presidential election. At the same time, the monetary situation is becoming increasingly threatening. The U.S. government currently spends… pic.twitter.com/utRhxOvpVM
— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) June 18, 2026
The warning fits a pattern Dalio has sustained for months. He first reportedly flagged the 2026-2028 window as especially risky during an April appearance on the Prof G Markets podcast, where he said the US was “on the brink of some of these problems” and placed a roughly two-year timeline on when the pressure could peak.
ALSO READ: Shyam Metalics Analyst Meet Takeaways: Over 2x EBITDA And Revenue Growth Targeted In Five Years
At the Forbes Iconoclast Summit in early June, he reportedly escalated that language further, declaring the US “past the point of no return” on its debt trajectory and suggesting a 1930s-style policy of financial repression — in which the Fed and Treasury coordinate to suppress yields — was now a plausible outcome.
US federal spending reached $7.1 trillion in fiscal year 2025 against $5.3 trillion in revenue, producing a $1.79 trillion deficit, while annual interest on the national debt is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to cross $1 trillion in 2026.
The total national debt now stands at roughly $39.2 trillion, up from about $28.5 trillion just five years ago.
Dalio has also linked the fiscal strain to broader geopolitical shifts, including foreign investors’ growing reluctance to hold US debt amid fears of sanctions — a concern he reiterated in his latest post.
ALSO READ: Fed’s Warsh Earns Points From Economists for Slick’ Performance
Essential Business Intelligence,
Sharp Market Insights,
Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
