Just as global energy supplies were beginning to stabilise after nearly four months of disruption, Iran has issued a fresh warning over the Strait of Hormuz. This time, however, the threat could extend far beyond the waterway.As tensions in the Middle East intensify again, Iran has warned that it could expand efforts to disrupt regional trade beyond the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over the movement of some of the region’s most important exports.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it could close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies”, according to Iranian media. The statement came after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.In a statement carried by Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, the IRGC said: “Regional energy exports are either shared by all, or denied to all.”The warning has heightened concerns over export flows from the Middle East, as the region’s maritime routes carry a significant share of global trade. Any wider disruption across these shipping lanes could affect several major export categories.
Strait of Hormuz in focus
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important energy chokepoint. The narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and carries nearly 20 million barrels a day (mb/d) of crude oil and petroleum products, around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
The route is the main export outlet for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iran. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain rely on it for the overwhelming majority of their exports.In 2025 alone, almost 15 mb/d of crude oil, nearly 34% of global crude trade, passed through the Strait. Including refined petroleum products, total oil exports reached almost 20 mb/d. Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share at 6.23 mb/d, followed by Iraq (3.63 mb/d), the UAE (3.24 mb/d), Iran (2.41 mb/d), Kuwait (2.37 mb/d), Qatar (1.43 mb/d) and Bahrain (0.21 mb/d).The route has come under renewed attention after the IRGC said on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until what it described as “the end of America’s evils”. Before the conflict began in February, around one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments passed through the waterway each day.
What could stop moving?
Natural gas suppliesThe Strait is just as critical for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.Around 93% of Qatar’s LNG exports and 96% of the UAE’s LNG exports pass through the Strait, together accounting for almost one-fifth of global LNG trade.Qatar exported more than 112 bcm of LNG in 2025, while the UAE exported around 7 bcm. Except for supplies sent to Kuwait, virtually every LNG cargo from both countries uses the Strait.Unlike crude oil, there are currently no practical alternative routes to move these LNG exports to international markets. Qatar’s Dolphin pipeline transported almost 20.5 bcm of gas to the UAE and Oman in 2025, but it has little spare capacity. Oman’s LNG export terminals are also operating close to full utilisation.A prolonged disruption could remove more than 300 million cubic metres of LNG a day from global markets, more than twice the average volume transported through the Nord Stream pipeline in 2021. With LNG export facilities elsewhere already operating close to capacity, replacing these supplies quickly would be difficult.Other energy shipmentsPetrochemicals and fertilisers are also at stake.The Middle East exports large volumes of petrochemicals, industrial chemicals and fertilisers through the region’s shipping routes.These include ethylene, polymers, industrial chemical feedstocks and urea-based fertilisers supplied to markets such as the United States, the European Union and India, where they support manufacturing and agriculture.The UAE and Israel are major trade hubs for defence goods, precious stones and high-value technology products. Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could indirectly affect this trade.
Other routes under threat too
Alternative routes exist, but they can replace only a fraction of the energy volumes that normally move through the Strait.Another crucial maritime gateway is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Analysts have said Iran might use its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt traffic through the route.According to Iran’s Press TV, a senior Houthi official warned that the group was prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continued attacking Yemen, claiming such a move could send oil prices to $200 a barrel.The warning followed Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia after the group accused the kingdom of bombing an airport under its control, ending a four-year truce. The Houthis have previously targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea since the Gaza war began in October 2023, saying the vessels were linked to Israel in support of Palestinians.Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Pipeline (Petroline), linking Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, was reported by Saudi Aramco to have a capacity of 7 mb/d in March 2025, although sustained operations at that level have not been tested.As of early 2026, between 3 mb/d and 5 mb/d of spare capacity was estimated to be available.The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), connecting Habshan with Fujairah, has a capacity close to 1.8 mb/d. Since around 1.1 mb/d is already in use, only about 700 kb/d of additional exports could be diverted.Together, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have an estimated spare export capacity of just 3.5-5.5 mb/d outside the Strait.On Iran’s front, the Goreh-Jask pipeline and Jask oil terminal, built as an alternative export outlet with a reported capacity of 1 mb/d, are not currently operational despite a test cargo being loaded in late 2024.
Info credit: IEA
Asia would bear the brunt
Asia receives the bulk of energy shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian media, Iran has said it plans to shut maritime corridors that benefit the US and its allies.About 80% of oil transported through the route heads to Asian markets, with China, India and Japan among the biggest buyers. China and India together accounted for 44% of crude exports through the Strait in 2025.IEA member countries imported around 29% of the crude moving through the waterway, with Japan and South Korea among the most dependent. Europe, by comparison, accounted for only around 600 kb/d, or roughly 4% of crude flows.The picture is similar for LNG. Nearly 90% of LNG shipments through the Strait were destined for Asia in 2025, supplying around 27% of the region’s imports.Just over 10% went to Europe, accounting for about 7% of its LNG imports.South Asian countries are among the most exposed. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan sourced almost two-thirds of their LNG imports through the Strait last year. Lower LNG supplies could also affect electricity generation, with natural gas accounting for around half of Bangladesh’s power generation and one-quarter of Pakistan’s in 2024. Gas shortages could also disrupt fertiliser production and other gas-intensive industries.India, however, has diversified its energy sourcing since the onset of the Middle East conflict.
Tensions continue to escalate
The latest threats came after the US military said it had begun a fresh round of strikes to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.The United States said Iran had attacked seven commercial ships over the past week, leaving nearly a dozen crew members dead, missing or injured.The US military also said it struck dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran’s coast during a seven-hour operation.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that Washington could target Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran did not resume negotiations.“I’ll save the energy targets for last, but ultimately we’ll hit energy targets,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News’ Trey Yingst.He added that US negotiators had told their Iranian counterparts, “you better make a deal”.Oil prices rose on Wednesday after closing 2% higher on Tuesday, with the latest attacks adding to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude closed at its highest level since June 12, while West Texas Intermediate settled at its highest since June 15, with both extending gains in early Wednesday trading, moving beyond the $85 per barrel mark.However, even with the hike, Brent crude is significantly lower than the $126 per barrel touched earlier.
