New Delhi:
The BJP is set to exercise extreme caution regarding ticket distribution for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.
According to party leaders, tickets will be allocated on the basis of a consensus among the top leadership.
Only candidates with a strong chance of winning – determined through surveys – will be fielded. There will be no leniency in denying tickets to sitting MLAs who are facing an anti-incumbency wave.
The BJP had to pay a heavy price in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections due to infighting among top leaders over ticket distribution. While the party had won 62 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2019, it managed to secure only 36 seats in 2024. Its vote share dropped from 49.6 per cent to 41.4 per cent.
Officially, the BJP attributes this defeat to the opposition’s aggressive campaign, which claimed that if the BJP won 400 seats, it would alter the Constitution and abolish reservation. Internally, however, the party acknowledges that overconfidence and internal rifts among top leaders led to its downfall.
Friction between the Delhi and Lucknow units was clearly visible during the ticket allocation process.
In a surprising move, the BJP had renominated most of its sitting MPs. Of its first list of 51 candidates, 46 were sitting MPs. In total, the party gave tickets again to 49 MPs for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, failing to account for anti-incumbency. Of the candidates fielded in 2019, 54 were given tickets again in 2024; 31 of them lost the election. Among the 49 MPs renominated by the party, 27 were defeated. Even Rakesh Pandey, an MP who had switched from the BSP to the BJP, lost the election. Thirty-three MPs had been given tickets for a third term or beyond; of these, 20 lost.
The defeat in UP was so severe that several Union Ministers were also swept away by it. Smriti Irani, Ajay Mishra Teni, Kaushal Kishore, Mahendra Nath Pandey, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma, and Sanjeev Balyan were defeated.
Eight-time MP Maneka Gandhi (from Sultanpur) and Rajveer Singh (son of Kalyan Singh) were defeated. Lallu Singh lost in Faizabad, and Subrat Pathak lost in Kannauj.
However, BJP leaders attribute this outcome to both anti-incumbency and internal sabotage. They claim that in several places, actions were taken from within the party to deliberately ensure the defeat of its candidates.
Despite the BJP being in power in the state, the administration did not cooperate, and disgruntled party workers stayed away from the campaign. Voter apathy was another major factor that led to a decline in voter turnout. For instance, Sanjeev Balyan lost by 24,672 votes in Muzaffarnagar, where the voter turnout had dropped by 9.07 per cent.
Over the last two years, the BJP has worked to address these shortcomings.
The new state president, Pankaj Chaudhary, toured the state to resolve the grievances of party workers and tried to ensure representation for all sections while forming his team. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been continuously touring various administrative divisions, maintaining regular contact with MLAs and party workers. Organization General Secretary BL Santosh has issued several directives to the organisation with the party workers’ concerns in mind.
Following the Special Summary Revision (SSR) of electoral rolls, the BJP has formed committees down to the booth level, keeping the new voter list in view. Public awareness and outreach campaigns will be launched to boost voter turnout.
Utmost caution will be exercised during distribution of tickets.
The party will ensure that this process does not lead to clashes of ego among leaders. The aim is to distribute tickets based on mutual consensus rather than imposing them.
To counter anti-incumbency, the party might deny tickets to more than a hundred of its 255 sitting MLAs. A significant number of tickets will be allocated to youth and women. The performance of long-serving MLAs will be closely scrutinised – they will be renominated only if their victory is assured.
According to a BJP leader, having achieved a historic victory in West Bengal, the party is unwilling to face any surprises in a stronghold like Uttar Pradesh. Every effort will be made to secure a hat-trick of victories in the state.
The BJP is aware that a second consecutive setback in Uttar Pradesh could breathe new life into the opposition and the party is not prepared to take any risks.
