In January 2002, throughout his State of the Union tackle, President George W Bush mentioned that in “4 quick months” the US had “rallied an important coalition, captured, arrested and rid the world of hundreds of terrorists … and terrorist leaders who urged followers to sacrifice their lives are operating for their very own”.
The time period “struggle on terror” had been coined just a few days after al-Qaida’s assaults of 9/11 to explain essentially the most intensive and bold counter-terrorism operation the world had seen. As Bush spoke, all of it gave the impression to be going fairly effectively.
20 years later, with greater than 300,000 folks killed in Iraq, in keeping with some estimates, and maybe 240,000 deaths in Afghanistan, the violence of the “struggle on terror” may be seen to have created additional chaos and carnage. Even excluding Iraq and Afghanistan, the numbers killed in terrorist assaults all over the world rose from 109 a month within the years earlier than 9/11, in keeping with one research, to 158 a month in the course of the six years that adopted. In the meantime, a few of these whom Bush mentioned have been operating for his or her lives are actually in energy in Kabul.
In Northern Eire, alternatively, the battle got here largely to an finish – after 30 years – as soon as British governments started to make use of the army and police to comprise, fairly than try to brutally extirpate, anti-state violence. Safety forces patiently developed their intelligence-gathering capacities, whereas authorities ministers acknowledged the political causes of terrorism and, finally, shaped partnerships with these whom that they had been combating.
Richard English, the creator of Does Counter-Terrorism Work?, is a professor of political historical past at Queen’s College Belfast, and has devoted many years to the evaluation of terrorism and to governments’ efforts to beat it. Provided that the alternatives made in counter-terrorism coverage impression immediately upon every of us on daily basis, it’s a vitally necessary space of research.
His earlier work features a 2016 quantity, Does Terrorism Work?, and a extremely regarded historical past of the IRA. Right here, he gives a considerate and authoritative dissection of the counter-terrorism efforts of the “struggle on terror”, Northern Eire’s Troubles and the Israel-Palestinian battle, and the teachings that every can supply.
English believes that post-9/11 counter-terrorism was far too short-termist, that the histories of Afghanistan and Iraq have been “considerably ignored in a disgraceful trend” and that the US grew to become overly impressed with its personal early army successes in each international locations.
In Iraq, the declare that the removing of Saddam Hussein from energy was a needed a part of a world counter-terrorist marketing campaign was, after all, based on the false declare that Saddam was supporting al-Qaida and the mistaken perception that he possessed weapons of mass destruction. Furthermore, English writes, the idea that the Center East could possibly be recast “by way of naive invasion” took no account of the area’s previous, its advanced allegiances, or the potential for one thing merely going improper.
He cautions that only a few counter-terrorism campaigns will ever obtain full strategic success. Unconvinced by those that declare bullishly that the Provisional IRA was “defeated”, he argues persuasively that the republican motion’s sustainable marketing campaign of violence was suspended solely as a result of its pragmatic leaders determined that they could extra doubtless obtain their goal – a united Eire – by peaceable means. Equally, he’s sceptical of these amongst his fellow teachers who argue that counter-terrorism operations will inevitably promote terrorism.
Nevertheless, he writes, there are occasions when “those that criticise counter-terrorists for worsening their state’s strategic place concerning terrorism, and people who rejoice tactical-operational successes in opposition to terrorist adversaries, may shout previous one another whereas but each being proper”.
English judges that if any counter-terrorism marketing campaign is to realize even partial strategic victory, it have to be performed in a affected person, well-resourced method, with clear targets. Provided that terrorists typically search to impress outrage and overreaction, the general public needs to be inspired to be reasonable in regards to the limits to what may be completed.
He additionally concludes that to keep away from failure, counter-terrorist efforts have to be built-in into broader political initiatives: “We must always not mistake the terrorist symptom for the extra profound points which can be at stake.”
Though this e book was written earlier than the Hamas assaults of seven October and the struggle in Gaza, English was already satisfied that Israeli counter-terrorism ways, irrespective of how rigorously conceived or brilliantly executed, is not going to resolve the battle until there’s a strategic engagement with Palestinian grievances and need for statehood.
Lastly, he cautions that his three case research current severe warnings in regards to the self-harm that may be inflicted by state actions judged to lack morality. All three have concerned the abuse of prisoners; that an overreliance on aggressive army strategies can shatter public help; that technical surveillance needs to be lawful and proportionate; and, as a senior British police officer warned in a report revealed this month, that there are severe inquiries to be requested in regards to the morality and legality of permitting informants inside terrorist organisations to commit severe crimes.
“A profitable counter-terrorism might be a simply counter-terrorism,” English writes: legally certain, accountable and proportionate. To stray from this, he says, dangers delegitimising the targets of the state. Or as a mural in Northern Eire used to say: “When those that make the regulation, break the regulation, within the identify of the regulation, there isn’t a regulation.”
Ian Cobain is the creator of Anatomy of a Killing: Life and Demise on a Divided Island (Granta)
Does Counter-Terrorism Work? by Richard English is revealed by Oxford College Press (£25). To help the Guardian and Observer order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Supply prices might apply
