Global container freight rates have climbed 130% since February 2026, with renewed tensions in the Middle East driving up shipping costs. India’s container-based export-import trade, however, continues to expand, according to a Jefferies report.The surge marks a reversal after a prolonged period of easing freight rates. Shipping costs had declined through much of 2025 and early 2026 as the demand-supply balance improved following elevated rates in 2024. Rates have since risen sharply, moving from around $2,000–2,500 in February 2026 to approximately $4,000–4,500 in October.The report noted, “Freight rates have risen 130 per cent since Feb-26, due to the impact of Middle-East tensions.” It also identified the possibility of shipping lines resuming transit through the Suez Canal as a key factor to watch, stating, “The potential impact of shipping lines’ return to the Suez Canal, despite Middle East tensions, is a key monitorable.”The latest increase in freight costs comes against the backdrop of growth in India’s containerisable trade. The value of the country’s container-based exports and imports rose 23% year-on-year in September 2026, according to Jefferies. Exports increased 22% during the month, while imports grew 23%.Trade performance varied across destinations. India’s exports to the United States registered a 48% year-on-year increase in September. In contrast, shipments to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia fell 12-15% compared with the same month last year.The report’s accompanying data traces the movement in global container freight rates from their highs in 2021-22. Rates subsequently dropped substantially before recovering in 2024, followed by another decline through much of 2025 and the early part of 2026. The recent upswing has reversed that trend.Port activity across India also showed mixed movement in September. Cargo volumes at major ports rose 13% year-on-year, while non-major ports recorded a 1% decline.Within the non-major port segment, Gujarat registered a 3% increase in volumes compared with September 2025. Ports in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu reported growth of 6-7%. However, major and non-major ports along India’s eastern coast witnessed a sharp fall in volumes during the month, the report said.Jefferies flagged the possible return of shipping lines to the Suez Canal, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as an important development for the global freight market. Any changes in shipping routes could influence freight rates, keeping the region’s developments in focus for businesses reliant on international cargo movement.While freight costs have risen alongside growth in India’s containerisable trade, the figures cited in the report do not establish that the increase in shipping rates has already affected the country’s export-import growth.
