Maria and her husband, Aleksandr, are sure that President Vladimir V. Putin will safe a fifth time period as Russia’s chief within the presidential election this weekend.
However the couple, who stay in Moscow with their three youngsters, are usually not so certain about what’s going to comply with. Foremost of their minds are fears that Mr. Putin, emboldened by successful a brand new six-year time period, may declare one other mobilization for troopers to battle in Ukraine. Aleksandr, 38, who left Russia shortly after Mr. Putin introduced the primary mobilization in September 2022 however not too long ago returned, is even contemplating leaving the nation once more, his spouse stated.
“I solely hear about mobilization — that there’s a deliberate offensive for the summer season and that troops want rotation,” Maria, 34, stated in a WhatsApp trade. She declined to permit the couple’s household identify for use, fearing repercussions from the federal government.
Many Russians have been worrying a few multitude of points earlier than the vote, which began on Friday and takes place over three days. Although the Russian authorities have denied that one other mobilization for the warfare is deliberate, a way of unease persists.
The considerations look like grounded within the risk that Mr. Putin will use his unfettered energy to make modifications he prevented earlier than the vote. Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Heart, one of many few impartial pollsters in Russia, stated these anxieties have been nonetheless felt primarily by the minority of Russians who oppose the federal government.
Whereas a possible mobilization stays the most important reason for concern, there may be unease, too, over funds and the financial system. Some Russians fear that the ruble, which has been propped up by the federal government after plunging final 12 months, may be allowed to depreciate once more, elevating the price of imports. Businesspeople fear about greater taxes, and opposition activists anticipate extra crackdowns on dissent.
“Persons are very anxious,” stated Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of worldwide affairs on the New Faculty in New York Metropolis who repeatedly visits Russia. “Uncertainty is the worst, as a lot as Russian persons are used to uncertainty.”
The concerns replicate a present temper in Russia, the place many have realized to hope for one of the best however anticipate the worst. The uncertainty has been worsened by a authorities that specialists say has change into more and more authoritarian.
After greater than twenty years in energy, Mr. Putin will not be restrained by an opposition occasion in Parliament or a robust civil society. He’s subsequently comparatively free to behave as he pleases.
Some specialists say that the Kremlin may use the outcomes of the vote — anticipated to be a landslide victory for Mr. Putin — to crack down even additional on dissent and escalate the warfare in Ukraine, which was supposed to be a brisk “particular army operation” however has was a slog that has induced lots of of 1000’s of casualties.
“In an authoritarian election, the outcomes are predictable however the penalties are usually not,” Yekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist, stated in a response to written questions from The New York Occasions. “If the system decides that it did properly and every little thing is sweet, then the post-election interval could be the time to make unpopular choices.”
Ms. Schulmann pointed for example to Mr. Putin’s final re-election, in 2018, which was adopted by a extremely unpopular improve in Russia’s retirement age.
Elections in Russia are managed tightly by the Kremlin by its virtually complete management of the media and state enterprises, whose employees are sometimes pressured to vote. The electoral machine filters out undesirable candidates, and opposition activists have both been compelled to flee or have ended up in Russian prisons. The nation’s most distinguished dissident, Aleksei A. Navalny, died final month in a penal colony within the Arctic the place he had been imprisoned.
Whereas the end result of the vote will not be in query, Russians have nonetheless been preoccupied by the method. The vote would be the first since Mr. Putin’s determination to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
A Moscow advisor who works with Russian companies stated a few of his shoppers had intentionally scheduled new inventory choices on the Moscow trade in order that they might occur in what they anticipated to be a comparatively quiet interval earlier than the vote. He requested anonymity to keep away from jeopardizing his relationship along with his shoppers.
Russian customers additionally rushed to purchase automobiles at first of the 12 months, after auto-market analysts prompt that the interval earlier than the elections may be one of the best time to purchase as a result of the ruble may be devalued as soon as the vote was over. The variety of new automobiles offered in Russia in January and February jumped greater than 80 % in contrast with the identical interval final 12 months, in line with Avtostat, a information web site concerning the Russian auto business.
Companies have been fearful that the federal government will increase taxes after the vote. On Wednesday, Mr. Putin stated that the federal government would draft new tax guidelines for people and personal entities, and specialists stated that probably meant taxes would rise for each teams.
Yevgeny Nadorshin, the chief economist on the PF Capital consulting firm in Moscow, stated corporations have been notably involved a few rise in taxes and better labor prices. “That might jeopardize Russia’s competitiveness,” he stated.
Mr. Nadorshin additionally famous the widespread rumors of one other troop mobilization that, if it occurred, may additional limit the labor marketplace for companies, he stated.
Mr. Volkov, of the Levada Heart, stated that almost all Russians, after the preliminary shock of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that adopted seven months later, tailored to the brand new world. A lot of that was the results of authorities efforts to lift morale by ensuring the nation’s financial system stayed wholesome and injecting cash into its industrial sector.
“There was a severe redistribution of assets in favor of the bulk, who really feel that they will now stay a traditional life with out getting instantly engaged within the warfare,” he stated, referring to wage will increase for manufacturing facility employees and varied social payouts.
Nonetheless, he pointed to what he stated was rising polarization between supporters and opponents of Mr. Putin.
“Mutual misunderstanding as we speak is larger and extra acute than earlier than,” Mr. Volkov stated.
Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists — those that stay within the nation and people who left — worry a brand new crackdown on dissent.
Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian businessman and opposition activist in London, stated he believed that after the election, dissidents would face a stark alternative between fleeing or dealing with imprisonment.
“Nothing will assist; the selection can be both to go to jail or depart the nation,” he stated in an interview with Zhivoy Gvozd, an impartial Russian information outlet.
However some analysts have expressed doubt that Mr. Putin will do far more than he already has to stamp out dissent.
“The system can’t be within the state of mobilization and stress eternally,” stated Aleksandr Kynev, a Russia-based political scientist who makes a speciality of regional politics. “If you happen to give an excessive amount of energy to the safety companies, tomorrow they will take away you from energy,” he stated. “Vladimir Putin understands it properly.”
Alina Lobzina contributed reporting.
