New Delhi:
A lot of political water has flown under the Yamuna bridge since Parliament last met in April. The Monsoon Session, likely to start on July 20, will see new political arithmetic as well as changed chemistry in the House, with some of the most stunning and far-reaching shifts in its composition. Defections, new alliances, mergers, a new seating arrangement and changed dynamics point to a stormy session.
The four-week-long session will have 19 sittings and is likely to last till August 13.
A New Parliament
The split in the Trinamool Congress, defections in the Uddhav Sena, and the DMK-Congress split are set to alter the numbers in the House. The ruling side is set to see its numbers swell and the Opposition a downgrade.
Speaker Om Birla will decide on the merger of 20 rebel Trinamool MPs with the lesser-known NCPI before the start of the session. He will also rule on the merger of six Uddhav Sena MPs with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena.
Another key change is the break-up between the INDIA bloc and the DMK after the Congress’ tie-up with the TVK in Tamil Nadu. The DMK has written to the Speaker seeking new seats for its MPs away from the Congress.
All these permutations and combinations are set to bolster the ruling NDA and weaken the Opposition, which is set to lose 20 TMC MPs, 6 Uddhav Sena MPs and 22 DMK MPs from its camp.
The NDA’s tally is set to rise by the same.
The NDA has never had it so good in its third term in Parliament. The changed dynamics have taken it closer to a two-thirds majority.
The magic mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha is 362. Currently, three seats are vacant – Basirhat, Shillong, and Nowgong – due to the death of sitting MPs. This brings the effective number required for a two-thirds majority down to 360.
The NDA has the support of 293 MPs. With 20 rebel Trinamool MPs extending support to the NDA and six Uddhav Sena MPs joining the Shinde camp, this figure rises to 319. If the 22 DMK MPs offer issue-based support, the tally increases to 341.
During the vote on the Constitution Amendment Bill in April, the NDA got the support of 298 MPs, meaning it secured some votes beyond its core strength. Factoring in these five extra votes, the NDA’s potential tally could reach 348 – just 12 short of a two-thirds majority.
Push For Key Bills
Emboldened by the new numbers, the government is likely to push several important bills in the session.
On top of the government’s agenda is likely to be the 131st Constitution Amendment Bill related to women’s reservation and delimitation, which was defeated in the last session.
Sources say that the government may introduce a significant amendment to this bill to include a provision to increase Lok Sabha and Assembly seats by 50 percent.
The government is also likely to bring the 130th Constitution Amendment Bill. The bill proposes the automatic removal of chief ministers and ministers, and also the Prime Minister, from office if they remain under arrest or judicial custody for 30 consecutive days in cases involving serious offences.
The Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) may suggest key amendments to it, including clearly specifying the laws under which a conviction would lead to removal from office, along with provisions to prevent misuse of the law.
The government may also push to pass the contentious One Nation One Election Bill.
Besides these, the FCRA Bill, Viksit Bharat Shiksha Adhishthan Bill, and Anti-Doping Bill are likely to be introduced. Bills to replace the ordinance increasing the number of Supreme Court judges, Code on Wages Central Rules, Corporate Law, and Securities Market Code may also be brought.
Opposition’s Ammo
The Opposition, though reduced in numbers, is likely to corner the government on a host of issues. The NEET paper leak may top the Opposition’s agenda. Apart from that, the Ram Mandir donation theft, petrol-diesel prices, inflation, and unemployment are other arrows in the Opposition’s quiver. The Opposition is also likely to be especially aggressive on the issue of splits in regional parties and the government’s alleged role in engineering defections.
