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Next week’s inflation data just got even more important after the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Next Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge follows this week’s FOMC meeting that marked a sea change for the central bank. After new chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish direction than investors were anticipating from the Trump appointee — the former Morgan Stanley banker famously said “inflation is a choice” — stocks pulled back, the bond market came under pressure and short-term yields pushed higher. On Wednesday, the yield on the 2-year Treasury — sensitive to short-term Fed policy — spiked more than 16 basis points, rising above 4.21%, as expectations of an interest rate hike were pulled forward to as soon as October. The 2-year last traded with a yield above 4.17%. That raises the stakes for upcoming inflation reports, which investors will now laser in on for any signs that the U.S. central bank could begin to hike rates. “A tightening campaign is no longer a tail risk though, it’s a live one,” wrote Dennis DeBusschere, chief market strategist at 22V Research. “And a tightening campaign would come along with higher recession probabilities and significant downside risk to equities.” “Expect a violently flat market until we have some clarity on how Core PCE will break,” DeBusschere added. Inflation The inflation picture may be about to get even murkier. That’s because the personal consumption expenditure price index for May is expected to show core PCE — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — rose 0.37% last month, according to consensus estimates from FactSet, up from 0.24% in April. But next week’s inflation print could prove too hot, especially after the Fed raised its core PCE forecast to 3.3% in 2026, up from 2.7% previously. According to 22V Research, core PCE will have to come in a monthly rate of just 0.21% to even meet the new Fed forecast. “Core PCE Printing above 0.21% monthly is not a high bar to clear. CPCE has been tracking monthly readings of ~0.36% this year,” DeBusschere wrote. “If Core PCE tracks closer to 0.3% going forward, there is meaningful risk of financial conditions tightening.” That will also affect the bond market. There’s a risk that the 2-year yield continues to rise even if oil prices fall, since core PCE doesn’t include and service price inflation is running 70 basis points (0.7 percentage point) too hot, 22V said. starts to pick up. The researcher’s John Roque has a 5% target for 2-year yields, potential trouble for the stock market. Fragile market As a result, the risks are rising for a stock market that has been exuberant following the SpaceX IPO, especially in light of the gargantuan IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI that are also on the way. Traders are wary of a pullback. On Thursday, SpaceX shares were down for a second day, falling about 4%, even as chip stocks rallied. And seasonally speaking too, investors may be facing a rough patch for stocks. “All this to say you can have an AI bull market, and still take like a summer to be flat,” said Giuseppe Sette, co-founder of Reflexivity. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday June 22 Tuesday June 23 8:15 a.m. ADP Weekly Employment change (06/06) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Manufacturing preliminary (June) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Services SA preliminary (June) Earnings: FedEx , Carnival Wednesday June 24 8:30 a.m. Current Account (Q1) 10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (May) Earnings: Micron Technology , Paychex Thursday June 25 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (May) 8:30 a.m. GDP final (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (06/20) 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (May) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (May) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (May) Earnings: Darden Restaurants, McCormick & Co. Friday June 26 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (May) 10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (June)
