International petrol demand development may halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, analysts stated, pushed by a shift to electrical vehicles in China and the US and a return to regular consumption after final yr’s bounce following COVID-19.
Within the lowest development since 2020, demand is prone to rise 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), to face at 26.5 million bpd this yr, says consultancy Wooden Mackenzie, down from development of 700,000 bpd final yr, as China nears the purpose of peak transport gas demand and the U.S. has surpassed it.
“Penetration of electrical autos has been growing in U.S. and China,” stated Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta.
“For this yr Chinese language demand will develop by solely 10,000 bpd, because of increased EV uptake.”
Consultancy Rystad Vitality pegs world gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from development of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fuelled by the consumption increase after the pandemic, stated analyst Mukesh Sahdev.
China, as soon as the world’s driver of gasoline demand, is predicted to account for greater than half of all EV gross sales this yr, the Worldwide Vitality Company has stated.
Gasoline consumption by the world’s largest crude importer is ready to develop by about 1.3%, or about 2 million tons, to 165.1 million metric tons (3.8 million bpd) this yr, forecasts by a analysis arm of China Nationwide Petroleum Corp (CNPC) present.
The analysis arm of China’s greatest refiner, Sinopec, expects gasoline demand to rise by 1.7%, or about 3 million tons, to face at 182 million tons this yr.
As falling costs spur demand, the share of electrical vehicles offered this yr may attain 45% in China, about 25% in Europe and greater than 11% in the US, the IEA estimates.
By comparability, booming automobile gross sales, together with excessive financial development and low EV penetration, are driving gasoline demand in India and Indonesia.
India’s petrol consumption will hit a contemporary document of 39.2 million tons (908,000 bpd) within the yr to March 2025, up about 5% from 37.2 million tons within the yr to March 2024, authorities estimates confirmed.
MARGIN PRESSURE
U.S. gasoline consumption fell to about 376 million gallons per day (8.94 million bpd) in 2023 after hitting a document 392 million gallons in 2018, in accordance with the U.S. Vitality Data Administration.
Demand in 2024 is predicted to be flat, analysts stated.
Consequently, U.S. refining margins are anticipated to remain beneath stress after the height summer time driving season, Woodmac and Rystad analysts stated.
In Europe, gasoline demand will develop by 50,000 bpd or 2.3% in 2024 to 2.19 million bpd, according to current years, FGE stated.
Stagnant European petrol demand and rising competitors from Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery, the biggest in Africa and Europe that would add 280,000-300,000 bpd of gasoline to world balances, will put European refining margins beneath stress, Woodmac stated.
Gasoline margins throughout the US and Asia have gained 85% this yr, to face at about USD 29 from a barrel of WTI crude on Could 1 and 29% and about USD 13 from a barrel of Brent crude on April 30, respectively, on expectations of strong summer time demand, LSEG information confirmed.
Margins gained power early this yr because of scattered refinery outages in Asia and the U.S., whereas increased freight prices because of assaults on Purple Sea transport and Russian power infrastructure supported European gasoline markets.
Eurobob gasoline was price round USD 23 from a barrel of Brent crude on Could 1, up from the USD 19.67 common in April final yr, the info confirmed.
 this year, forecasts by a research arm of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) show.){kind=link}