In 2020, a line of extreme thunderstorms unleashed highly effective winds that triggered billions in damages throughout the Midwest United States. A method developed by Penn State scientists that includes satellite tv for pc information may enhance forecasts — together with the place essentially the most highly effective winds will happen — for related extreme climate occasions.
The researchers reported within the journal Geophysical Analysis Letters that including microwave information collected by low-Earth-orbiting satellites to present pc climate forecast fashions produced extra correct forecasts of floor gusts in a case research of the 2020 Midwest Derecho. Derechos are strains of intense thunderstorms infamous for his or her damaging winds.
“The pc mannequin is ready to produce a collection of forecasts that persistently emphasize essentially the most highly effective storms and strongest wind harm at the place it occurred,” stated Yunji Zhang, assistant professor within the Division of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State and lead creator. “If we’ve got this sort of data in actual time, earlier than the occasions happen, forecasters would possibly be capable of pinpoint the place the strongest harm goes to occur.”
The method may very well be particularly helpful, the scientists stated, in areas that lack ground-based climate monitoring infrastructure — like radars historically utilized in climate forecasting. Within the research, the researchers solely used information accessible from satellite tv for pc observations.
“In areas the place there are not any floor observations, or mainly no radar, we present that this mix of satellite tv for pc observations can generate an honest forecast of extreme climate occasions,” Zhang stated. “We will in all probability apply this method to extra areas the place there are not any radar or dense floor observations. That is the elemental motivation behind this research.”
The analysis builds on the staff’s prior work utilizing information assimilation, a statistical technique that goals to color essentially the most correct image of present climate circumstances. This contains even small adjustments within the ambiance as they will result in giant discrepancies in forecasts over time.
In prior work, scientists with Penn State’s Middle for Superior Information Assimilation and Predictability Strategies assimilated infrared brightness temperature information from the U.S. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite tv for pc, GOES-16. Brightness temperatures present how a lot radiation is emitted by objects on Earth and within the ambiance, and the scientists used infrared brightness temperatures at completely different frequencies to color a greater image of atmospheric water vapor and cloud formation.
However infrared sensors solely seize what is occurring on the cloud tops.
Microwave sensors view a complete vertical column, providing new perception into what is occurring beneath clouds after storms have fashioned, the scientists stated.
“Simply based mostly on the cloud tops, it is harder to deduce what the convection of those storms appears like beneath,” Zhang stated. “In order that’s one of many advantages of including within the microwave observations — they will present data on the place the strongest convections are.”
By combining assimilated infrared and microwave information within the research of the derecho, the researchers had been in a position to predict floor gust areas and most wind values extra precisely.
In future work, Zhang stated he plans to use the strategy to areas that lack the assets and infrastructure to help high-spatiotemporal-resolution climate observations.
“We all know that there have been a number of instances prior to now a number of years in West Africa the place very sturdy torrential rainfall occasions have introduced on loads of precipitation to these international locations,” Zhang stated. “And one factor about these international locations is that also they are the locations that can seemingly be impacted most by world warming. So I feel if we will use these accessible satellite tv for pc observations to offer higher forecast for these areas, it is going to be actually helpful for the individuals there as effectively.”
Additionally contributing from Penn State had been David Stensrud and Eugene Clothiaux, professors, and Xingchao Chen, assistant professor, all within the Division of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science.
NASA and the U.S. Division of Vitality supplied funding for this work.
