LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased in September, with the number of cargoes leaving the key waterway reaching its highest monthly level since the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The rise came despite continuing security concerns and uncertainty over shipping through the strait.Data from S&P Global Energy showed that 19 LNG cargoes passed through the Strait of Hormuz in September. Of these, 13 were from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates.The figure was higher than the 15 cargoes recorded in June, when a pact between the US and Iran had started to take effect, according to Eric Yep, a senior principal analyst at S&P Global Energy.“LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated in the second half of September and if this is maintained into October, we could see full-month transits recover to 25% of pre-war levels.”
Kpler puts September tally at 21 cargoes
Kpler’s data showed a total of 21 LNG cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz in September, also marking an increase from the 15 recorded in June.The tracking data showed more QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels, both laden and in ballast, moving through the strait in recent weeks despite the conflict.Three LNG vessels carrying cargoes from Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal reappeared outside the waterway this week, according to Kpler and LSEG ship-tracking data.Two of the vessels were QatarEnergy-linked Al Kharaitiyat and Al Gharrafa. Al Kharaitiyat was last seen inside the strait around September 22 to September 23 before reappearing off India’s west coast around September 29 to September 30. It is now travelling past Sri Lanka.Al Gharrafa disappeared from tracking data inside the strait between September 23 and September 24. It reappeared off the west of India on September 30.The third vessel, Milaha Qatar, is managed by Germany’s Pronav Ship Management. It was last glimpsed in the strait between September 17 and September 21 before reappearing west of India on September 30. It is now offloading its cargo at India’s western port of Hazira.QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while Pronav Ship Management declined to comment.
‘Dark transits’ make vessel movements harder to track
Some vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz make “dark transits”, switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection.For LNG shipments, the question now is whether the increase in traffic can continue through the winter.“The key concern is whether LNG transits through Hormuz can be sustained through winter,” Yep said.He said this would hinge on whether Iran would resort to more serious military escalation if higher exports through Hormuz were perceived as a loss of leverage in its control of the strait. The continuation of shipping convoys under US naval escorts, despite the high cost, would also be a factor, he added.Before the war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies.
