Wall Street can’t agree on what’s driving the surge in bond yields — whether it’s stubborn inflation or rapid growth or the exploding deficit — but, whatever the cause, the likelihood that higher interest rates are here to stay is unnerving investors who fear that eventually something has to break . Treasury yields continued their ascent Friday, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly reaching 5.230% — the highest since June 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield was above 5.51%, levels not seen since 2004. The 2-year note yield was last near 4.90%. One catalyst this week was the release of strong economic surveys Wednesday, especially in the manufacturing sector, which some investors cited as confirming that the bull case in equities remains intact. They believe that higher yields are a reasonable response to rein in an economy that, by some measures, is running hot — especially as tens of billions of dollars pour in to everything artificial intelligence-related. “The economic restraint that the capital markets/Fed is providing will slow growth,” Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research wrote this week. “Our call is that the growth slowdown will be gradual (toward 2% real), inflation risk will be lower and that is eventually positive for equities.” Dance with the one that brought you In that view — where robust economic growth and not inflation is driving rates higher — investors would do well to stick with the biggest beneficiaries of that strength, namely tech stocks, DeBusschere continued. Investors got that memo this week, with cyclical parts of the stock market suffering and the most growth-oriented companies rallying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , financials and small caps lagged, while the Nasdaq Composite , Magnificent Seven and semiconductors advanced. For all the bond market ructions, the S & P 500 remaining near all-time highs in September suggests that momentum is on the market’s side, just as the calendar nears what is historically the best quarter of the year. But, those same highs raise the risk of a downturn, even a significant one, with the market bearing one more burden, in the form of a consequential midterm election season. “I continue to think that there’s more risk to the downside than to the upside,” said Justin Bergner, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “Higher interest rates should reset asset prices lower to some degree.” “And whether or not that’s all you see in the market, or people conclude that the negative effects of interest rates far outweigh the signal they may be sending regarding, you know, AI productivity, I think, remains to be seen,” he continued. That will heighten the importance of the next inflation and economic reports, especially those for September just before the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Next week will bring the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index for August. Next Friday brings the release of the September jobs report, which should show nonfarm payrolls roughly halving to 85,000 from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%. Consumer focus What’s clear is that consumers are now coming more sharply into focus now that they face bond yields at levels not seen in a generation, after getting battered for the past five years by higher gasoline, grocery, auto and housing prices. At the same time, consumers are starting to suffer stagnating wages and fears of AI disruption in the workplace. This week, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage leapt to 7.45%, its highest in more than two years, according to Mortgage News Daily. “Consumers’ been holding in. How long can that last? That’s what worries me,” Bergner said. “I don’t think, kind of, the business cycle is done because of AI. And at a certain point, that will begin to affect the megacap companies as well.” Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Sept. 28 Tuesday, Sept. 29 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (July) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (September) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (August) Earnings: Carnival Wednesday, Sept. 30 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (September) 8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price final (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (August) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (August) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (September) Earnings: Micron Technology Thursday, Oct. 1 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (09/26) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Manufacturing final (September) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (August) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (September) Earnings: Nike , McCormick & Co. Friday, Oct. 2 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (September) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (September) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (September) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (September) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (September) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (September) 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (August) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (August)
