For years, Aryna Sabalenka’s biggest battle at the summit of women’s tennis was with Iga Swiatek. The Belarusian and the Pole pushed each other for the No.1 ranking, Grand Slam titles and supremacy at the top of the game.
But while Swiatek’s dominance has dipped, another player has steadily emerged as a far more troublesome opponent for Sabalenka.
Elena Rybakina.
The Kazakh has gone from being one of Sabalenka’s elite rivals to becoming her most damaging nemesis, particularly when the biggest prizes are on the line. Rybakina’s latest blow came at the 2026 US Open, where she defeated the defending champion 4-6, 7-5, 2-6 to win her maiden title in New York.
For Sabalenka, the defeat completed a remarkable transformation in their rivalry. Rybakina has repeatedly found a way to hurt her at precisely the moments when the stakes are highest.
And now Sabalenka has a year she would rather forget in the Grand Slams. For the first time since 2022, she will finish a season without winning a major.
FROM SWIATEK TO RYBAKINA
There was a time when every conversation about Sabalenka’s position at the top of women’s tennis inevitably involved Swiatek.
Sabalenka eventually established herself as the dominant force on hard courts, winning the Australian Open in 2023 and 2024 before adding the US Open in 2024 and 2025.
All four of Sabalenka’s Grand Slam titles before this US Open had come on hard courts.
That makes Rybakina’s emergence particularly significant.
She is not simply beating Sabalenka on the surface where the Belarusian is most comfortable. She is doing it with a game that directly challenges Sabalenka’s greatest strengths.
Rybakina possesses one of the biggest serves in the women’s game and combines it with flat, penetrating groundstrokes. She can match Sabalenka’s first-strike tennis without becoming overwhelmed by it.
The result is a fascinating contrast: Sabalenka brings explosive emotion and power, while Rybakina brings an almost clinical calmness. And increasingly, that calmness is proving to be a nightmare for Sabalenka.
RYBAKINA KEEPS PROMISING WHEN IT MATTERS MOST
The warning signs were already there at the end of 2025.
At the WTA Finals in Riyadh, Rybakina produced one of the biggest performances of her career to defeat world No.1 Sabalenka 6-3, 7-6(0) in the final. She finished the tournament unbeaten and claimed her maiden WTA Finals title.
Then came Melbourne.
The 2026 Australian Open final was another heavyweight contest between the pair. Sabalenka fought back after losing the first set, but Rybakina regained control and won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 to claim her second Grand Slam title.
The defeat was particularly painful because Sabalenka had built a 3-0 lead in the deciding set before Rybakina turned the match around.
Sabalenka did respond brilliantly afterwards. She defeated Rybakina in the Indian Wells final, saving a championship point before winning the deciding-set tie-break 8-6, and then beat her again in the Miami semi-final.
So this is not a rivalry in which Rybakina simply has Sabalenka’s number. Far from it.
But when the biggest trophies have been at stake, Rybakina has repeatedly demonstrated that she can withstand Sabalenka’s best.
EVEN SABALENKA’S HARD-COURT FORTRESS IS CRACKING
The most striking element of Rybakina’s rise as Sabalenka’s nemesis is the surface on which she is doing the damage. Hard courts have been Sabalenka’s kingdom.
Sabalenka arrived at Flushing Meadows having won 20 consecutive matches at the US Open. She had also reached the final for four straight years, winning the previous two editions.
Yet Rybakina has now beaten her in two of the biggest hard-court finals of 2026. The Australian Open came first. The US Open followed.
The US Open final was especially brutal because Sabalenka had looked so comfortable throughout the tournament. She had lost only one set before the final and dismantled Jessica Pegula in the semi-final to reach a fourth consecutive championship match in New York.
Against Rybakina, however, the equation changed.
Sabalenka won the second set 7-5 after dropping the opener 6-4, seemingly swinging momentum back in her favour. But Rybakina responded with a stunning deciding set.
The Kazakh took control early and never allowed Sabalenka to regain her rhythm. She won the final set 6-2, producing 36 winners and finishing with 11 fewer unforced errors than her opponent.
It was not simply a case of Rybakina surviving Sabalenka. In that final set, she made Sabalenka look powerless.
RYBAKINA CHANGES THE BALANCE AT THE TOP
The significance of this rivalry goes beyond individual defeats.
Rybakina’s victory in New York completed a remarkable rise that has taken her from a player who had struggled at the US Open to the No.1 in women’s tennis.
Before 2026, New York had been her least successful Grand Slam venue. She had never progressed beyond the fourth round. This year, she won the title.
Even before beating Sabalenka in the final, Rybakina had already secured the No.1 ranking by reaching the semi-finals. Her quarter-final victory over Zheng Qinwen guaranteed that she would end Sabalenka’s 99-week reign at the top.
That makes the timing of her breakthrough remarkable.
Rybakina has not merely become another challenger to Sabalenka’s throne. She has taken the throne herself.
And yet, the rivalry remains far from one-sided. Sabalenka entered the US Open final with a 10-7 advantage over Rybakina, and her defeat in New York means the overall head-to-head now stands at 10-8.
That record is important because it shows just how competitive this matchup is.
Rybakina is not some kryptonite who has suddenly figured out Sabalenka completely. Sabalenka has beaten her in major finals and has won two of their three meetings in 2026 before the US Open.
But Rybakina has developed an ability to make Sabalenka uncomfortable in the biggest moments. And that could be the defining development of women’s tennis in 2026.
Sabalenka spent years trying to stay ahead of Swiatek at the summit. Rybakina is calmer, just as powerful and increasingly comfortable under the brightest lights.
Sabalenka may still lead their rivalry.
But after what happened in Melbourne and New York, there is little doubt about who has become her biggest nemesis.
– Ends
