If there had been odds on which Mexican politician was colluding with the cartels, the favorite might have been Rubén Rocha Moya.
Mr. Rocha, the governor of Sinaloa, has long been dogged by accusations of protecting his state’s dominant criminal organization, the Sinaloa Cartel, a prolific supplier of fentanyl and ruthless purveyor of violence.
Those accusations reached a fever pitch in 2024 when the U.S. authorities arrested the cartel’s co-founder, who then said he thought he had been on his way to meet Mr. Rocha.
Yet, instead of investigating, Mexico’s leaders rushed to Mr. Rocha’s defense. The president at the time, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, quickly joined hands with Mr. Rocha on a stage in Sinaloa. “I came to pledge to continue fighting alongside you,” Ms. Sheinbaum said.
That promise just got a lot more complicated.
On Wednesday, U.S. prosecutors unsealed an indictment that put teeth behind the years of accusations against Mr. Rocha. It painted a picture of years of collusion among the Sinaloa Cartel, Mr. Rocha, and nine other current and former officials in Sinaloa, in which the cartel leaders delivered bribes and votes in exchange for impunity.
The charges detonated a political bomb in Mexico, dominating the national conversation and largely splitting the country into two camps: those thrilled to see consequences for what they viewed as endemic corruption in Mexico and those repulsed by what they viewed as illegal intervention by the United States.
Mr. Rocha, 76, denied the charges, calling them a U.S. ploy to undermine Morena, the leftist political party to which he and Ms. Sheinbaum belong. Then, on Friday night, he abruptly announced he would temporarily step down from his position to focus on his defense.
For Ms. Sheinbaum, the moment presented her with a crisis — or an opportunity. She could use the indictment as a turning point to crack down on corruption or, as Mexican leaders have often done in the past, close ranks in the face of accusations from their neighbor to the north.
“I do believe she wants justice,” said Enrique Acevedo, lead anchor of “En Punto,” Mexico’s biggest nightly newscast. “But every time she’s had to make a decision that could politically hurt the movement she represents, she’s been shown to be restrained.”
He added, “If no one is above the law, it’s time that the president recognizes this and acts upon it.”
Ms. Sheinbaum has decided against going after Mr. Rocha in the past. Before the indictment, her government had debated investigating Mr. Rocha and ultimately declined, concluding there was not enough evidence to warrant it, according to two people briefed on the decision who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions.
Since the indictment, she has also acted with restraint. She denied the U.S. request to arrest Mr. Rocha and other accused officials, saying it lacked sufficient evidence. She said that Mexico’s attorney general would instead investigate the case. And she added that if the probe found no basis for the U.S. accusations, her government would view the indictment as meddling in Mexico’s sovereignty.
“We cooperate and coordinate with the United States, but I’ve said it many times: We will never subordinate ourselves, because that is a matter of dignity,” she told reporters on Friday.
All eyes are now on how her government handles Mr. Rocha.
Viri Ríos, a prominent Mexican political analyst, said that Ms. Sheinbaum’s effort to slow-walk the extradition request is a smart political strategy. Immediately detaining Mr. Rocha and sending him north could embolden the Trump administration to indict more Mexican officials and destabilize her government, she said.
But, she added, Ms. Sheinbaum should also capitalize and truly investigate Mr. Rocha. “The Rocha case presents an opportunity for Sheinbaum to demonstrate her willingness to pursue corrupt politicians,” Ms. Ríos said. “And she has more internal support within Morena to do so than is widely assumed.”
But in recent history, Mexican officials have hesitated to investigate their own, said Gina Parlovecchio, a former U.S. prosecutor who led several high-profile prosecutions of Mexican cartel leaders, including that of Joaquín Guzmán, known as El Chapo. “We had little to no cooperation from the Mexican government in any of our investigations, including against public officials,” she said.
Action against Mr. Rocha “would be an incredible sea change,” Ms. Parlovecchio added. “It would be the first time Mexico really publicly embraced the idea that they have a significant political corruption problem.”
Ms. Sheinbaum has said her government fights corruption, pointing to its bust of a sprawling fuel-theft ring inside the Mexican Navy and recent arrest of a mayor. Some members of Morena, her party, also accuse Washington of pushing a narrative of widespread corruption in Mexico to undermine the country.
The U.S. government wants “to dictate whatever they want on our territory, overriding our independence and sovereignty,” said Gerardo Fernández Noroña, a Morena senator who was president of the Mexican Senate until last year.
Some Mexicans have also questioned whether the U.S. government truly cares about fighting the drug trade when President Trump recently pardoned the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandéz, who had been imprisoned in the United States for helping to smuggle drugs into the country.
U.S. prosecutors have charged Mexican officials with corruption before, but typically when they have already left office — and after arresting them inside the United States.
In 2019, U.S. prosecutors charged Genaro García Luna, Mexico’s former security chief, with aiding cartels. Mr. López Obrador, the Mexican president at the time, was his political rival and did not dispute the charges. Mr. García Luna is now serving a 38-year prison sentence.
In 2020, U.S. prosecutors charged Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda, a former Mexican defense minister, of doing the same. But the response from the Mexican government was very different. Mr. López Obrador was a close ally of General Cienfuegos and threatened to expel U.S. agents from Mexico unless he was released.
Concerned about the bilateral relationship and strength of the case, William P. Barr, then the U.S. attorney general, sent the general back to Mexico, where the government quickly exonerated him.
“That was hugely devastating,” said Ms. Parlovecchio, who helped lead the case against General Cienfuegos. “But it just gives you an example of how the tide has turned. That was during ‘Trump One’ and a different attorney general, and they certainly weren’t taking as muscular a posture toward the cartels as they are now.”
Ms. Sheinbaum is feeling that heat. Even while praising her personally, Mr. Trump has routinely threatened military strikes on the cartels in Mexico. Under that pressure, Mexico has ramped up collaboration with the U.S. authorities. The efforts have led to a reduction in homicides and the capture of several top leaders.
In highly unusual moves, Ms. Sheinbaum’s government has also sent 92 high-level cartel operatives to the United States outside the typical extradition process. The U.S. authorities are now probably mining those cartel members for information, Ms. Parlovecchio said, which could eventually lead to more indictments of Mexican officials.
In Sinaloa, life has gone on since the governor was indicted. On Thursday and Friday, at least 10 people were killed and two other corpses were found.
César Suárez, who runs a newsstand in Culiacán, the state capital, said he and many of his neighbors wanted Mr. Rocha to face justice. But he was not optimistic.
“Let’s see if the president has the nerve to act, or if everything stays the same, if she turns a blind eye and things carry on as they always have,” he said. “Because that’s how it’s always been here, and in Mexico. Nothing ever happens, even when something this big does.”
Reporting was contributed by Paulina Villegas from Culiacán, Mexico; Alan Feuer from New York; and Maria Abi-Habib, Cyntia Barrera Díaz, Emiliano Rodríguez Mega, Miriam Castillo and Ana Sosa from Mexico City.
