“Come cry with me”, reads the front page of The Sun. It warns: “Hols chaos over fuel shortages.” The splash warns that 13,000 flights have been axed in May and claims that “looming jet fuel shortages” have “forced airlines to tear up busy half-term schedules”.
But all the indications are that the vast majority of holidays from UK will go ahead as normal.
These are the key question and answers.
Are claims of 13,000 flights being cancelled in May correct?
Yes, resulting in two million fewer seats being available according to aviation analyst Cirium. Which sounds a lot. But this is a global figure, and relative to the total aviation operation it represents a 1.5 per cent reduction in capacity. Furthermore, the cancellations are being made because of the high price of aviation fuel rather than shortages.
Lufthansa of Germany and Turkish Airlines make up a significant proportion of the cancellations. These carriers are grounding planes because it’s cheaper than flying them. The German airline has cancelled some UK operations, but this simply means asking passengers planning to fly from Glasgow to Frankfurt to travel to Edinburgh instead.
Just over 100 flights have been cancelled at Heathrow – but these are simply planned operations to airports in the Gulf region whose resumption dates are being extended.
What are my rights if a flight is cancelled?
Under air passengers’ rights rules, travellers whose flights are departing from the UK or the EU – or on British or European airlines from anywhere in the world – have strong rights. They are entitled to be flown to their destination as close to the original schedule as possible, on any airline with seats available, and to be provided with meals and hotels if there is a significant delay.
So far I have had two summer flights cancelled: one from London City to Guernsey, with departure switched to Gatwick and another from Bucharest to Luton. There were plenty of replacement flights at similar prices so I simply took a refund. But had the fares been higher, I could have insisted on the cancelling carrier buying a fresh ticket.
Should holidaymakers with bookings for the summer be worried?
Not according to Britain’s airlines, which insist they are not seeing any shortages, despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant proportion jet fuel normally travels. Three big airlines – Jet2, easyJet and Wizz Air UK – have come out and said they see no reason why planned flights should not go ahead.
The only cancellations that are likely to affect holidays this summer are currently being made purely for commercial reasons – with the high price of aviation fuel making some poorly performing routes loss-making.
Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of the Advantage Travel Partnership, told The Independent’s daily travel podcast: “Obviously we can all see what’s happening in the Gulf, and there are clearly some concerns there. But it’s very clear from the UK government, and also UK airlines, there is no shortage of fuel as we stand.
“Flights will be operating and people can look forward to traveling this summer.”
Airlines have other ways to deal with shortages of fuel in the UK. The easiest is “tankering” in fuel from abroad. Wizz Air has contingency plans to fill aircraft tanks operating to British airports so there is no need to refuel in the UK.
What about long-haul flights?
Happily, there’s a straightforward fix which is to use “pitstops” on the along the journey. This has long been done in many circumstances, including in the UK when a fire reduced fuel supplies at Heathrow, and flights to Australia had to pause at Stansted.
But the transport secretary says airlines may cancel?
It’s no secret that airlines have seen reduced demand from travellers since the crisis unfolded. British Airways has a dozen flights on a typical day from London to Dublin, and its sibling Aer Lingus has many more. Both airlines might like to take a few of those flights out of the schedule and move some passengers an hour or two either way. That could fill empty seats and save cash as well as aviation fuel, preserving the precious liquid for holiday flights. Heidi Alexander says the normal “use it or lose it rule” could be suspended, if it helps to conserve fuel.
Could holiday flights really be prioritised ahead of business flights?
I believe so. While July and August are easily the busiest months for leisure travel, they are always very quiet for business – partly because corporate travellers tend to be on holiday. Axing a few Heathrow to Frankfurt flights will have far less of an impact – emotionally on the passenger and financially for the airline – than grounding a Manchester to Skiathos or Edinburgh to Crete departure. On these routes flights are not daily, giving little room for manoeuvre.
So no big worries, then?
I predict not. Holidaymakers actually dealt with a much bigger shortage of flights in 2022, coming out of Covid, when airlines such as British Airways and easyJet cancelled tens of thousands of flights due largely to staff shortages. I cannot see anything happening on that scale. Problems caused by the EU entry-exit system are much higher on my risk register.
Read more: Major holiday company to offer same-day refunds for flight cancellations
