Scientists and leading weather agencies are raising serious concerns about the likelihood of a super El Nino developing later this year, with some forecasts suggesting it could be the strongest on record in over a century. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May to July 2026.
The WMO’s chief of climate prediction warned that climate models are now strongly aligned, with high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months ahead.
According to a Netweather report, leading climate models from both ECMWF and NOAA currently indicate an 80 per cent chance of a strong El Nino event, with a 20 to 25 per cent chance of it crossing into full super El Nino territory by late 2026.
A super El Nino is defined as one where water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, as per NBC News report.
New ensemble model runs from the ECMWF, NOAA, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology now align on a high-impact trajectory, with several forecasts suggesting this event could become the strongest El Nino in modern history, potentially surpassing the record-breaking event of 1877 to 1878, according to Severe Weather Europe.
The consequences for global weather could be far-reaching. A super El Nino brings more extreme weather shifts, turning typical seasonal changes into high-impact events including massive flooding, severe droughts, and significantly altered storm tracks that can affect the entire planet.
For Europe, models suggest a rising drought risk in central parts, whilst southern and northern Europe could see above-normal rainfall. In the Atlantic, El Nino is expected to suppress hurricane activity by bringing higher pressure, stronger wind shear, and a more stable atmosphere, making it harder for storms to organise and grow into large systems.
According to NBC News, if a super El Nino forms and lasts into next year, climate scientists have warned that global temperatures in 2027 could spike to record-breaking highs. Authorities are urging governments and climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, water management and public health to begin preparing now.
What Is A Super El Nino?
A Super El Nino is an extreme version of a natural weather pattern. Usually, El Nino happens when ocean waters in the Pacific get a bit warmer than normal. However, a “Super” event occurs when these waters become exceptionally hot-at least 2 degee celcius above average.
This extra heat acts like a massive engine, shifting weather around the globe. It often brings heavy rain and floods to South America while causing droughts and bushfires in Australia. In the UK, it can lead to more stormy, wet winters. Because these events release so much heat into the air, they often cause record-breaking global temperatures.
