It’s “polarisation” and “caste equations”, say political analysts, that would be the deciding elements in eight Lok Sabha seats of western Uttar Pradesh (UP) the place voting shall be held on April 19. The polls may additionally see the Bahujan Samaj Get together (BSP) shedding the tag of Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP)’s “B staff” by denting each the ruling Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Indian Nationwide Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc within the area.
The BJP has claimed it would win all eight seats — Pilibhit, Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Rampur, Moradabad, Nagina, and Bijnor. However analysts say an examination of public points, agendas, caste equations, and polarisation tells a unique story. “In seats like Pilibhit, Saharanpur, Kairana, and Muzaffarnagar the Samajwadi Get together-led alliance appears to be in a promising place. Of those, barring Saharanpur, the BJP received the opposite three seats within the 2019 Lok Sabha Polls,” mentioned Shashikant Pandey, head of the division of political science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar College, Lucknow. Pandey mentioned the BJP has additionally labored on Rampur, Moradabad, Bijnor, and Nagina — the 4 seats it misplaced within the earlier polls. Nonetheless, the competitors is hard in these constituencies as nicely.
The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Get together has sprung a shock as it’s combating on a technique to save lots of its core voters and attempt to capitalise on the discontent amongst Thakurs and Tyagis towards BJP, mentioned Pandey.
The BSP’s strategic number of candidates throughout varied constituencies in Uttar Pradesh underscores its nuanced method to caste dynamics within the state, he mentioned.
“In Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar, and Meerut, they’ve fielded Rajput and Tyagi candidates. In Muzaffarnagar, the get together has tapped into the Most Backward Lessons (MBCs) by nominating a Prajapati candidate towards the BJP’s Sanjeev Balyan. In Bijnor, an influential Jat candidate challenges the Gurjar decide of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, whereas in Baghpat, a Gurjar candidate counters the RLD’s Jat alternative. Aligarh noticed a shocking transfer with a Brahmin candidate, a BJP defector, positioned towards Satish Gautam, reflecting the BSP’s manoeuvre to disrupt caste equations. This calculated choice technique extends to Mathura, the place the BSP is making strategic selections in candidate choice to navigate advanced caste dynamics and electoral challenges,” identified Pandey.
Within the 2019 normal elections, the BJP clinched simply three of the eight seats: Pilibhit, Kairana, and Muzaffarnagar. The Samajwadi Get together emerged victorious in Moradabad and Rampur, whereas the Bahujan Samaj Get together secured Saharanpur, Bijnor, and Nagina. This distribution illustrates a various electoral panorama in Uttar Pradesh, with completely different events asserting dominance in varied constituencies, observers mentioned.
Rampur
Over the previous decade, the Samajwadi Get together’s stronghold, led by Azam Khan, has witnessed an intense push from the BJP. In 2014, BJP’s Dr Naipal Singh made historical past by successful the seat by over 3.58 lakh votes and a 37.5% vote share, the primary non-Muslim to take action. Nonetheless, in 2019, SP’s Azam Khan secured a victory with over 5.59 lakh votes and a 52.7% vote share. Following Khan’s disqualification resulting from a three-year imprisonment sentence associated to a 2019 hate speech case, the BJP reclaimed the seat within the 2022 bypolls. This oscillation underscores the fierce rivalry between the SP and the BJP on this essential constituency. The SP this time has fielded Mohibullah Nadvi, the BJP has picked Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi, and the BSP has nominated Zeeshan Khan.
Moradabad
The constituency, dubbed Pital Nagri, has witnessed the pendulum swinging between the Samajwadi Get together (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) over the previous decade. In 2019, the SP’s Dr ST Hasan secured a victory with over 6.49 lakh votes and a vote share exceeding 50%. In 2014, the BJP’s Kunwer Sarvesh Kumar emerged triumphant, clinching the seat by a margin of over 4.85 lakh votes and a vote share of 43%. This fluctuation highlights the aggressive dynamics between the SP and the BJP on this constituency in recent times. The SP has now fielded Ruchi Veera, the BJP has given a ticket but once more to Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar Singh, and the BSP has opted for Irfan Saifi.
Kairana
The Lok Sabha constituency in Shamli district has been a stronghold of the BJP since 2014, aside from a setback in a 2018 bypoll. In 2014, BJP’s Hukum Singh secured a victory right here with over 5.65 lakh votes and a 50.6% vote share. Nonetheless, the 2018 by-election, triggered by Singh’s demise, noticed RLD’s Tabassum Hasan defeating the late MP’s daughter Mriganka Singh, who ran below the BJP banner. Nonetheless, the BJP reclaimed the seat within the 2019 elections, with Pradeep Choudhary rising victorious by garnering greater than 5.66 lakh votes and a 50.4% vote share. The SP this time has fielded Iqra Hasan, the BJP has picked Pradeep Choudhary once more, and the BSP has given its ticket to Shripal Rana.
Pilibhit
The constituency, situated within the Bareilly division, has been a bastion of the “BJP’s Gandhis” since 2014. In 2019, Varun Gandhi received the constituency with a document 7.04 lakh votes and commanded an enormous vote share of 59.4%. Samajwadi Get together’s Hemraj Verma was a distant second with greater than 4.48 lakh votes. In 2014, Varun’s mom Maneka Gandhi received the seat with greater than 5.46 lakh votes and secured a vote share of 52.1%, defeating Samajwadi Get together’s Budhsen Verma. This time, the BJP has fielded Jitin Prasada, Bhagwat Saran Gangwar is the SP candidate, and the BSP has fielded Anis Ahmed Khan.
Muzaffarnagar
The Lok Sabha constituency, with roughly 16 lakh voters, has been within the BJP’s bag since 2014. Within the 2019 normal elections, union minister Sanjeev Balyan narrowly triumphed over late RLD chief Ajit Singh right here. Balyan secured over 5.73 lakh votes and a 49.5% vote share, whereas Singh garnered greater than 5.67 lakh votes with a vote share near 49%. In 2014, Balyan’s victory was resounding, defeating BSP’s Kadir Rana by a staggering margin of over 4.3 lakh votes. Balyan clinched greater than 6.53 lakh votes with a commanding vote share of 59%. The SP has now fielded Harendra Singh Malik from right here, the BJP has reposed religion in Sanjeev Balyan as soon as extra, whereas the BSP has picked Dara Singh Prajapati.
Saharanpur
The seat has modified fingers many occasions through the years, from the Congress to Janata Dal, and others. In 2019, BSP’s Haji Fazlur Rahman secured a victory right here with over 5.14 lakh votes and a 41.7% vote share. He was adopted by BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal, who garnered 4.91 lakh votes. This electoral pattern underscores the evolving dynamics and the BSP’s rising affect within the constituency, marking a departure from earlier political equations. The BJP has fielded Raghav Lakhanpal once more, the BSP has picked Majid Ali, whereas the Congress has opted for Imran Masood.
Bijnor
Over the previous decade, the constituency, encompassing 5 meeting seats, has witnessed a transition from the BJP to the BSP. Within the 2019 elections, BSP’s Malook Nagar emerged victorious right here, securing over 5.56 lakh votes and a 51% vote share. Within the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP’s Kunwar Bhartendra Singh clinched the seat with greater than 4.86 lakh votes and a vote share of 45.9%. The SP has now given a ticket to Deepak Saini, the RLD has fielded Chandan Chauhan, and the BSP has picked Chaudhary Vijendra Singh.
Nagina
In 2019, BSP’s Girish Chandra received right here by unseating BJP’s Yashwant Singh with over 5.68 lakh votes. Singh remained an in depth second with greater than 4 lakh votes. This contest marked a shift within the electoral dynamics of the constituency reserved for Scheduled Castes. Within the 2014 normal elections, Singh had triumphed right here, garnering greater than 3.67 lakh votes and a vote share of 39%. The BJP candidate this time is Om Kumar, the SP has nominated Manoj Kumar, whereas the BSP has fielded Surendra Raj Singh.
