TMC’s twin revolt: Is BJP the biggest beneficiary? | India News

Trinamool Congress, born from the grassroots in 1998, is seeing the ground slip from beneath its feet, with rebels asserting themselves in the assembly and Parliament.In 2011, Mamata Banerjee‘s party ended 34 years of Left rule in West Bengal, making her the state’s first woman chief minister and ushering in a 15-year stint in power. But when the TMC suffered its first electoral defeat at the hands of the BJP in 2026, the bigger challenge emerged after the results.Within weeks, a wave of revolt swept through the party at the local, state and national levels. Roughly three-quarters of the TMC’s legislators rebelled against both Mamata Banerjee and her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, widely seen as her political heir. The dissidents seized control of the party’s legislative wing, installed their own leader of the opposition and openly challenged the leadership’s authority.The unrest soon spread to Parliament. TMC MPs in Rajya Sabha, Sushmita Dev and Sukhendu Sekhar Ray, resigned from both the Upper House and the party, while rebel Lok Sabha MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar claimed that nearly 20 TMC MPs were prepared to support the BJP-led NDA. The developments have triggered speculation about whether the TMC is headed for a formal split — and, more importantly, who stands to benefit if it does.The answer could have implications far beyond Bengal. A fractured TMC could strengthen the BJP both in Parliament and in the state, potentially follow a pattern seen in Maharashtra, Bihar and Odisha, or create an opening for the Congress and the Left to reclaim political space after years of decline.

How BJP benefits

If the Trinamool Congress (TMC) splits, the BJP stands to gain both numerically and politically. The immediate advantage lies in Parliament, where rebel MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar has claimed that around 20 of the party’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs are prepared to support the BJP-led NDA. Even if the dissidents do not formally join the BJP, their support would weaken one of the BJP’s principal opponents while strengthening the ruling coalition.The rebellion has revived speculation that the NDA may improve its chances of securing the numbers required for key constitutional amendments. Earlier this year, the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty First Amendment) Bill, 2026, popularly known as the Delimitation Bill, failed to pass after the government fell short of the two-thirds majority required in Parliament. The Women’s Reservation Constitution Amendment Bill, which had been linked to the delimitation exercise, also stalled for the same reason. Support from a sizeable bloc of TMC dissidents could potentially strengthen the NDA’s position on such legislation, even if it does not immediately alter the formal composition of the ruling alliance.The bigger gains, however, could come in West Bengal. Despite the BJP’s emphatic victory in the 2026 assembly elections, the gap in vote share between the two parties was relatively narrow. While the BJP won 207 seats against the TMC’s 80, it secured 46.24 per cent of the vote compared to the TMC’s 41.16 per cent. The numbers suggest that the TMC still retains a substantial support base, but a split could fragment that vote further, making it easier for the BJP to consolidate its dominance in the state.A divided TMC would also give the BJP an opportunity to attract disgruntled leaders, legislators and local organisers. Political observers point out that the BJP has often benefited when regional parties weaken through internal divisions, as seen in states such as Maharashtra and Bihar. In Bengal, where the BJP has emerged as the principal pole of politics, defections from the TMC could further strengthen its organisational reach.The BJP may also benefit because there is little evidence that a weakened TMC would automatically help the Congress or the Left. In recent years, much of the anti-TMC vote has shifted towards the BJP rather than other opposition parties.Political commentator and former Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha argues that this trend is partly rooted in the TMC’s own political strategy over the past decade. According to him, the party steadily absorbed much of the Congress’s organisational and electoral base in Bengal, leaving little space for a viable third force. As the Congress and the Left weakened, anti-incumbency sentiment against the TMC increasingly found expression through the BJP.“A bipolar contest always helps the BJP significantly because it plays a more polarised game,” Jha says. If the TMC fragments further, he argues, the BJP could once again emerge as the principal beneficiary rather than the Congress or the Left.

Maharashtra, Bihar, Odisha: Is Bengal following a familiar script?

The turmoil within the TMC is drawing comparisons with political developments in several states where dominant regional parties either fractured internally or gradually lost ground to the BJP. The closest parallel is Maharashtra, where rebellions within the Shiv Sena and later the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) began among legislators before spreading to Parliament and eventually resulting in rival factions claiming legitimacy. In both cases, the splits weakened opposition parties and strengthened the BJP’s position.The developments in Bengal appear to be following a similar trajectory. The revolt began with dissident MLAs challenging the party leadership and has now reached Parliament, with rebel MPs claiming the support of a significant section of the TMC’s Lok Sabha contingent. Veteran Rajya Sabha MP Sukhendu Sekhar Ray has already suggested that the unrest within the party’s parliamentary ranks could deepen further.Beyond Maharashtra, Bengal’s political churn also resembles a broader national trend. In Odisha, the BJP gradually displaced the Biju Janata Dal after more than two decades in power. In Bihar, regional formations such as the JD(U) and RJD have steadily ceded political space as the BJP expanded its footprint. Across states, parties once seen as dominant regional forces have found it increasingly difficult to withstand the BJP’s organisational and electoral growth.The TMC’s troubles come at a time when several regional parties have either lost power, fragmented or seen their influence diminish. Whether Bengal ultimately follows the Maharashtra model of a formal split or the Odisha model of a dominant regional force being replaced remains unclear. But the experience of other states suggests that internal divisions often accelerate a process already underway — the weakening of regional parties and the consolidation of the BJP as the principal pole of politics.

Can the INDIA bloc afford a weakened TMC?

The TMC’s crisis has implications beyond West Bengal. As one of the INDIA bloc’s largest constituents and among the BJP’s strongest opponents in Parliament, a weakened or divided TMC would reduce the opposition alliance’s collective strength at a time when it is already facing internal strains.Mamata Banerjee’s presence at the INDIA bloc meeting in Delhi was therefore significant. Coming amid rebellion within her party, it underscored her need for a broader opposition platform even as the alliance seeks to retain unity after recent electoral setbacks. With the DMK also distancing itself from the bloc, the weakening of another major regional player could further complicate the opposition’s efforts to present a united challenge to the BJP.

Some opposition voices argue that the TMC’s troubles make greater coordination within the INDIA bloc even more important. Sanjay Jha contends that neither the Congress nor the TMC is currently strong enough in Bengal to effectively challenge the BJP on its own. A divided opposition, he argues, would only make it easier for the BJP to consolidate its gains in the state.“They are planning this game to make sure that the TMC is not in a good position in the Lok Sabha of 2029, which is only two and a half years away or three years away. So, what should happen ideally in West Bengal is that the TMC and the Congress will have to come together. TMC and Congress have no alternative but to come together,” he said.For the INDIA bloc, the question is not just whether the TMC survives intact, but whether the opposition can remain cohesive if one of its key pillars is weakened from within.

Opportunity for Left, Congress or just a mirage?

A split in the TMC could, at least in theory, create political space for the Congress and the Left. Both parties have struggled to remain relevant in West Bengal since the rise of Mamata Banerjee, and a weakening of the TMC could allow them to position themselves as an alternative for voters uncomfortable with both the BJP and the ruling party. The Congress, in particular, could seek to attract minority voters and sections of the anti-BJP electorate if the TMC appears divided or unable to effectively challenge the saffron party.Yet others caution that the Congress may not be in a position to capitalise on such an opening. Sanjay Jha argues that the party’s organisational structure in Bengal has weakened significantly after decades out of power and cannot be rebuilt overnight. Having been out of power in the state for decades, the Congress would struggle to rapidly fill any vacuum created by a TMC split.“The Congress has no organisational muscle in West Bengal. I don’t think the Congress is suddenly going to find an opportunity and, even if there is one, I don’t think it is capable of leveraging it,” he said.Even, electoral trends suggest that such gains are far from guaranteed. Data from the past 4 assembly elections shows a dramatic collapse of the Left-Congress space. The CPM’s vote share fell from 30.08 per cent in 2011 to just 4.49 per cent in 2026, while the Congress declined from 9.09 per cent to 2.99 per cent over the same period. In contrast, the BJP’s rise from 4.06 per cent in 2011 to 46.24 per cent in 2026 closely mirrors the decline of the Left Front, indicating that much of the anti-TMC vote has migrated to the BJP rather than returning to traditional opposition parties.The question, therefore, is whether a weakened TMC would actually revive the Congress-Left combine or simply accelerate the BJP’s consolidation. While some minority voters could become disillusioned if the TMC descends into prolonged factionalism, there is little recent evidence to suggest a large-scale shift towards the Congress or the Left. The TMC still secured 41.16 per cent of the vote in 2026 despite its defeat, suggesting that it retains a substantial social and electoral base that may not be easily transferable.That vote share, Sanjay Jha argues, is also a reminder that the TMC remains a significant political force despite its current crisis. Even after a major electoral defeat, it continues to command the support of more than four in ten voters, suggesting that assumptions about its rapid decline may be premature.Suggesting the “best way forward”, he said, “TMC still has more than 40% of the vote share. So, add Congress and together they become a viable alternative.”This also raises a broader question about the future shape of Bengal politics. Is the state moving towards a bipolar BJP-versus-TMC contest, with other parties increasingly marginalised? Or could a TMC split create an opening for the Congress and the Left to re-emerge as a meaningful third force? Or could the TMC find its way back to the Congress—the very party it broke away from in 1998 to chart an independent political course? For now, the electoral data points more strongly to the former scenario, but the answer may depend on where disgruntled TMC leaders, minority voters and anti-BJP constituencies choose to align in the months ahead.