The run-up to the Budget typically generates speculation about what might be in it, which the government is trying to keep to a minimum this year.
Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham face a difficult balancing act, trying to offer more support to households and meet commitments on defence spending, while also sticking to Labour’s manifesto commitments on tax and the government’s self-imposed fiscal rules.
The previous chancellor, Rachel Reeves, set out two main rules, which the new leadership has vowed to follow. These are:
In March, the OBR calculated that the first rule would be met with a gap – or headroom – of £23.6bn. However, this headroom is expected to have shrunk.
Analysts are divided on how much it may have fallen by. KPMG believe it could have fallen to £12bn, mainly due to the rise in government borrowing costs this year.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) also forecasts that debt interest will significantly reduce headroom. But it also suggests higher inflation could push up tax revenues as pay rises drag people into higher tax thresholds.
It estimates the buffer could still shrink but to a comparatively less severe £20bn.
One option that has been floated is that Healey could decide to accept a smaller buffer, reducing the need to increase taxes in the Budget.
Bank taxes
Bank bosses have told the BBC they expect Healey to raise taxes on the sector. UK banks have been reporting bumper profits, leading to calls from unions for higher taxes.
The Treasury has options: it could raise a 3% surcharge on profits which was lowered from 8% under the previous Conservative government, or it could raise the bank levy that is based on the size of their balance sheets.
Your First Home scheme
Further details on the “Your First Home” scheme, aimed at helping first-time buyers in England to purchase a property, are expected to be announced in the Budget.
The scheme will allow people to buy a new-build home with a deposit of 2.5%. It would provide them with a loan worth 20% of their property’s value to help pay for the purchase.
Capital Gains Tax
There has been speculation that Capital Gains Tax (CGT) – which is imposed on the profit people make when they sell an asset that has increased in value – could be changed, through either higher rates or by removing or amending exemptions.
At the moment, if you pay income tax at the basic rate then CGT is charged at 18%. For higher and additional rate income tax payers, the CGT rate is 24%.
The FT has reported, external that Healey has rejected proposals to raise CGT to the same rates as income tax.
Tax on businesses
The Times has reported, external that online retail giants such as Amazon and eBay are expected to be made responsible for collecting tax owed by traders using their platforms.
The paper said the money raised is expected to be used by the government to cut business rates for High Street shops, by raising the threshold at which small companies start paying rates from £12,000 to £18,000.
Fuel duty
Fuel duty was frozen under the Conservatives in March 2022 and Sir Keir Starmer’s government continued the freeze, deciding in May to push back a planned 3p increase in September until the end of this year.
Healey told the BBC in late September that the “place” and “time” for dealing with rising petrol and diesel costs was the Budget, but would not give details on whether the freeze would be extended again.
Energy bills
Household energy bills are set to see their biggest rise in four years in January, with a typical annual bill forecast to jump by £276.
There has been speculation, external that Healey is planning energy bill help for households on certain benefits.
Mansion Tax
The High Value Council Tax Surcharge – dubbed the Mansion Tax – was announced in last year’s Budget and will apply to properties in England valued above £2m from April 2028.
There had been speculation that the government was considering extending it to properties worth more than £1.5m. However, reports now suggest, external Healey has ruled this out.
