New Delhi:
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s focus on the infiltration issue in the election campaign appears to have strongly swayed the voter sentiment in its favour in Assam, as the NDTV-Axis My India exit poll has predicted a landslide election triumph for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The Congress-led alliance, which was hoping to prevent the third BJP victory in succession in the state it once dominated, will likely record yet another dismal performance.
Per the NDTV-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance will win between 88 and 100 seats, reducing the Congress-led alliance to 24-36 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to become the single-largest party with 70-80 seats. AGP will likely win 7-9 seats and the BPF 9-11 seats.
The exit poll said the Congress will likely win the highest number of seats in its alliance — between 22 and 30. Its allies are staring at a worse performance — the Raijor Dal is expected to win 1-4 seats, AJP 1-2 seats, CPI(M) 0-1 seats, and IND (APHLC) 0-2 seats.
Health warning: exit polls often go wrong.
The BJP contested in 90 seats, AGP in 26 seats, and BPF in 11 seats. The Congress contested in 99 seats, the Raijor Dal in 13 seats, and the AJP in 10.
NDA’s Vote Share
The exit poll predicted a vote share of 48 per cent for the ruling alliance, with the BJP garnering 37 per cent of the votes, followed by AGP’s 7 per cent and BPF’s 4 per cent.
Congress-led Alliance’s Vote Share
The combined vote share of the Congress-led Opposition’s alliance is expected to be 38 per cent. The Congress will likely bag 31 per cent, followed by Raijor Dal’s 3 per cent, AJP’s 3 per cent and 1 per cent for the CPI(M) and IND (APHLC).
Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF will bag 2 per cent of the votes, the poll predicted.
Poll of Exit Polls
The Poll of Exit Polls, an aggregate of exit polls, has predicted that the NDA will win 92 seats and the Congress-led alliance 28 seats.
What Other Exit Polls Predicted
Most of the exit polls predicted a comfortable BJP victory and a poor Congress performance.
The Janmat exit poll predicted 87-98 seats for the BJP-led alliance, 29-30 for the Congress combine. The JVC poll said the NDA will win 88-101 seats, the Congress-led block 23-33 seats and the AIUDF alliance 2-5 seats.
The Matrize exit poll predicted 85-95 seats for the BJP-led alliance, followed by the Congress-led block’s 25-32.
NDTV-Axis My India exit poll’s respondents included 60 per cent men and 40 per cent women. The sample also included 2 per cent first-time voters, 24 per cent aged between 20 and 29, 27 per cent aged between 30 and 39, 21 per cent in the 40-49 age bracket, 14 per cent in the 50-59 age bracket and 12 per cent senior citizens.
